MIES (Switzerland) - If we had to pick one of the Quarter-Finals draws that looks most likely to end with drama, most of us would probably pick Hapoel U-NET Holon v SIG Strasbourg. Game 1 tips off this week on Wednesday the 6th of April in the Holon Toto Arena and for any neutral basketball fan in Europe this really isn't one that you want to miss. Both of these teams are at their best in clutch games, and whether that is Guy Pnini knocking down game-winning three-pointers or DeAndre Lansdowne's game-winning dunks, it's pretty much impossible to separate them when it comes to that pure will to win.

In fact, the only thing that separates them is their season records. Holon finished second in their Regular Season group, as did Strasbourg but the Israelis recorded an extra win with a 4-2 record, and, of course, due to the fact that they have the home-court advantage we already know they had a better record in the Round of 16 - again finishing with one more win and a 4-2 record. 

Data Overview

Holon sit perfectly in the middle of the pack on offensive and defensive efficiency amongst Quarter-Finals teams. They score at a rate of 110.6 points per 100 possessions (ORTg) and concede 104.5 points per 100 possessions (DRtg), leaving them a Net Rating of +6.1 per 100. SIG's story is very different when it comes to efficiency. Only Lenovo Tenerife have been more efficient on the offensive end, with the French club scoring at a rate of 114.9 points per 100 but the defensive end hasn't been as encouraging. Lassi Tuovi's squad have conceded 110.4 points per 100 possessions, making them the least efficient defensive squad left in the tournament. The two teams are - perhaps surprisingly given SIG's ORtg - almost identical when it comes to shooting the ball with Effective Field Goal (eFG%) percentages of 54 percent. SIG have been great on the glass, pulling down 28 percent of their misses (second in the QFs), and also when it comes to turning the ball over, losing the ball on just 14.5 percent of their possessions (also second in the QFs). Guy Goodes' squad have been elite when it comes to sharing the ball, recording an assist for 74.2 percent of their possessions with a made field goal (second in the QFs behind Manresa). 

Hapoel U-NET Holon

Saturday the 8th of January was a good day for Hapoel U-NET Holon. They announced Guy Goodes as their new coach. They have a 12-5 record since then. Not only have the results picked up but they have found a brand of basketball that is the perfect marriage with one of the most passionate fanbases in European basketball.

Joe Ragland is running the show from the Point Guard position and the duo of Adam Smith and Tyrus McGee at the combo guard means this team is always loaded with a scoring punch in the backcourt. You already know what Guy Pnini does and Chris Johnson is established as one of the finest defensive players you will find anywhere - he's also averaging 16 points and 6 rebounds on efficient shooting percentages so don't discount him as a huge factor on the offensive end either. Rafael Menco is also a threat on the wings and the combo of Zack and Kyser allows Goodes to play the same 4 out basketball with either of them on the floor. And there lies the essence of Holon's style of basketball...

In the clip below we see them manage the Ludwigsburg press (easier said than done) and then get into their standard 4 out pick-and-roll with #12, Kyser. There is a total of eight passes in the possession, with the final pass - a now customary - lob pass from #1, Ragland to Kyser for the dunk. If the behind-the-back pass from #,25 McGee was slightly more accurate that would have probably been the possession of the season. Even so, what we really need to pay attention to is the three-guard lineup with Johnson as the small-ball Power Forward and Kyser as the athletic Center. This is a team full of playmaking and scoring threats but because they are also stacked with willing passers, Goodes can make these lineups work with so many ballhandlers on the floor at the same time. 

The set play you see in the video below is Holon's most used and is built around the same philosophy of four playmakers, a single screener, and both corners filled with slot spacing on the weak side. They start in a "Horns" set but the first screen is only designed to slightly dislodge the ballhandler's defender before Kyser comes to set the pick-and-roll. Then it's all about playing off reads and trusting that everyone can pass the ball until they find the shot they want. Simple but extremely well suited to their personnel and very effective. 

On the defensive end, these smaller lineups require creativity but also offer some flexibility. Anytime the ball goes in the paint they need to flood the lane with bodies and trust their foot speed to rotate out to shooters. Chris Johnson and Michale Kyser at the four and five positions also give them the ability to mix up their coverages. A great example of that is the way that Goodes like to employ a switch on screens late in the shot clock. In the first clip below you see Kyser switch and then they flood the lane to protect Ragland with the mismatch in the paint.

In the second clip, it was #4, Johnson that switched late, then watch for the "Triple Switch" as Kyser switches again to remove Dijon's mismatch by the time the ball enters the post. And, finally, in the last clip we see Holon switching everything and the key action is a switch between Kyser and Johnson. In case you weren't aware, Chris Johnson in the post is not a mismatch with anyone. 

Playing this way also requires Holon to be very assertive individually on the defensive end. If they aren't proactive and just stick to the system, at this level, teams find ways to exploit them due to their size. Luckily for Goodes and Holon, this is a team with players like Johnson, Ragland, and Kyser who all have a nose for a steal or a block and they regularly make impactful plays on the defensive end.

SIG Strasbourg

This is the second season in a row where Lassi Tuovi's squad has improved as the season has gone on. If anything, last season's run to the Final 4 actually saw SIG go through less upheaval. This season we have seen Jarell Eddie make a splash and then leave, John Roberson and Jaromir Bohacik are also crucial parts of the rotation and have also been unavailable through injury. And yet, here we are, at the Quarter-Finals stage and SIG are still rolling. A huge reason behind their ability to ride the punches has been because they can rely on the continuity and character of the players returning from last season. 

Continuity is also a key word in the style of play we see on court from SIG, especially on the offensive end. Much like Holon, this is a team full of smart playmakers and willing passers. All the way from Udanoh at the five, down to Howard at the Point Guard spot, everyone has the mentality and skill to pass (which also explains why they are such a low turnover team). The set play in the video below is a great representation of this. They use a screen away to enter the action and then run a playmaker off staggered screens. They don't regularly create a shot directly from this but it almost always creates an advantage that they can then leverage into their dribble-drive game. So much so, that if you watch, you will see there is a weakside "Flare" screen programmed into the action as a read if they drive on that catch after the staggered screens. 

More of the same in the next clip. Watch for the late flare screen by #4, Leo Cavaliere to create a shot in the corner - just when it looks like the possession might be lost after Oostende managed to cancel their dribble-drive game with some good defense. 

Despite their defensive struggles this season, SIG aren't a team without ideas on the defensive end, and if anything they match up well against Holon. Of course, when your tallest player is Yannis Morin at 2.08m and Ike Udanoh is regularly used as your center at 2.03m, you are struggling for size and are likely to give up mismatches around the rim. Especially against the ACB and Turkish teams that tend to have size. Where SIG make up for that is with their activity and also in Lassi Tuovi's systems. One of those systems that we might expect to see against Holon is the matchup zone press in the clip below.

This press does use traps but when a team employs a 2-2-1 matchup press like this, the aim is more to disrupt the opponent's flow and delay their actions later into the shot clock. For a team like Holon that often moves the ball late into the shot-clock in search of better shots, a tactic like this could be very effective. Also, pay attention to #23, Maille's activity on the defensive end, and the switch from Cavaliere then help from #7, Taylor. Maille in particular is very active defensively and will need to be at his best against Holon's three-guard lineups. 

This next clip is against the same opponent, Falco, and this time we see how important Ike Udanoh will be in this series. His ability to guard multiple positions and stay in front of the ballhandler on switches will be vital. If Holon aren't able to create as many advantages from the pick-and-roll in their 4 out sets, we won't see the lobs to Kyser and the dribble-drive dump-off passes.

Key Matchups

Without a doubt, the most important matchup in this series will be Guy Goodes against Lassi Tuovi. The two squads are equally well-suited to playing each other, so coaching decisions are likely to be huge. We will likely see a lot of switching so instead of a single matchup we might be watching Chris Jonson and Michale Kyser against everyone on SIG and likely Udanoh and Cavaliere against everyone on Holon. When and where those switches happen and which lineups are used will be a huge part of this series, as will be managing player emotions - especially with that crazy Holon crowd. Can either coach find an unexpected matchup that can give them an edge? One to watch here maybe something like Lassi Tuovi going to Matt Mitchell in the post.

If we are really pushed to pick a matchup it will have to be who comes up with the game-winner if, as expected, this series goes to the wire. In that situation, two names stand out above all, Guy Pnini for Hapoel U-NET Holon...

And DeAndre Lansdowne for SIG Strasbourg.

Either way, we don't have to wait long to find out but whatever you do, make sure you block out space on your calendar for this series because you probably won't find better drama anywhere on your screens this side of Netflix.